What is excess liquidity? It is hoped that from a professional perspective, data support is better.

The liquidity we talked about (liquidity) has three usages or meanings

is the liquidity of the entire macroeconomic, which refers to the amount of currency investment in the economic system. Refers to excessive currency investment, these excess funds need to find investment in investment, so there is investment/economic overheating phenomenon and danger of inflation. The root cause of excess liquidity comes from the continuously promoting trade surplus in China. Exporting companies constantly exchanged recovered US dollars to the country, and the country has to continue to put RMB from the economic system, which has caused the phenomenon of excess liquidity.

In the stock market, we mention that liquidity refers to the entire market. The entire market refers to the number of participation in transaction funds relative to the stock supply. It is the market value of total circulation and off -site funds, which is still preparing to enter the market at any time in the stock account. If the stock supply is unchanged, or the growth rate of transaction funds is faster than the stock supply growth rate, even if the company's profit is unchanged, it will cause the stock price to rise. The rise in the stock price is limited. The sought after by too much or excess funds leads to excessive increase in stock prices without performance support. In the end, it is difficult to last. This kind of funds are often hot money we often say.

At present, Excess Liquidity has become an important feature of China's economy and even the global economy.

In fact, the word excess is not accurate. Excess is a concept of quantity, while excess liquidity is expressing a state. The author tends to think that this state is more appropriate to express with "high liquidity".

The so -called "liquidity" actually refers to the difficulty of a product to achieve transactions for other products. The standard for measuring difficulty is the speed of realizing the transaction with other products. When the product is accelerated with other products, that is, it is very easy to achieve transactions, and the liquidity will be surplus; when the transaction between the product and other goods slows down, that is, when the transaction is very difficult, the liquidity will be There will be insufficient.

In general macroeconomic analysis, excess liquidity is used to refer to a currency phenomenon. In other words, in the real economic analysis, the benchmark products in the above definition are only regarded as currencies, because currencies are also a commodity. The European Central Bank (ECB) defines excess liquidity as the deviation of the expected equilibrium level of the actual currency stock.

The definition of inflation also has many types, but the basic characteristics of inflation include two aspects: First, the currency in circulation is expanding, that is, the currency depreciation. Second, the prices of general commodities and labor are generally rising and continuously rising. Note that the two concepts will help distinguish between inflation and other price increases. In addition to inflation, Inflation also has the meaning of credit expansion and price skyrocketing. From the meaning of these words, we can also understand that excessive currency and credit swelling, and prices continue to rise in a trinity, which is inseparable.

So, what is the relationship between excess fluidity and inflation? We know that the expected balance of currency stock actually corresponds to the level of price. When we say that the liquidity is excessive, that is, when the currency is over, the expected balanced currency stock has not changed. At this time, the prices have not emerged in general and continuously rising. However, as the actual currency stock has exceeded the level of convergentity, the level of prices may generally rise, and inflation occurs. There is a certain period of time in the middle. If the central bank can control the issuance of currency at this time and return the actual currency stock to the expected balance level, then the price level is common and the continuous rise may not occur. Conversely, the level of prices may occur and continue to rise.

Here, it also has to involve the essence of currency, how currency is over -issuing, and the transmission mechanism from currency over issuance to the general rise of prices. In Marshall, the term "currency" has a large telescope. Without the opposite significance, "currency" can be regarded as a synonym for "currency". In the financial market, the "value of currency" is equal to the interest rate of discount rates or short -term loans at any time. In Thomas Meyer, the full value of goods and currency refers to the value of the product and the value of exchanging intermediaries. If the value of the currency as the product itself cannot be exactly equal to it as the currency, and it cannot be used to redeem the goods (direct) the goods, it is called credit currency.

This believes that currency is essentially the liabilities of the central bank's replacement of some people on the other hand. Credit currency shows a debt and debt relationship, and circulating banknotes are actually a special form of bonds. When there is excessive liquidity, the speed of transactions in currency and other goods has accelerated greatly. This shows that the creditors holding the currency want to exchange currencies with other goods as soon as possible to realize their claims. As all the creditors want to use the currency to return to other goods, the currency is under pressure to depreciate. The faster the currency circulation, the greater the depreciation of the currency. At this time, if the bonds in the hands of currency holders cannot get the equal value repayment, the trend of snap -up will occur. The prices will rise, and inflation will occur in the entire society.

The severe inflation in the mid -1990s, but in recent years, M2 and GDP have continued to maintain a high level in recent years, but there is no inflation. It is generally believed that there are several reasons:

First, there is a certain period of time stagnation from the oversupply of currency to the level of the whole society. Due to the complexity of modern credit currencies, the pressure of currency over issuance often does not immediately lead to a widespread increase in prices. This lagging period often depends on the accuracy of macroeconomic data, the degree of attention of different price indexes, the public and enterprises' expectations for macroeconomics, and the national currency and financial department's attitude towards inflation. We see that although the amount of currency issuance in the real economy has been running at a high level for several years, the consumer price index may still be negative; when the currency authorities have reduced the issuance of the currency of each caliber in order to suppress the inflation, the consumer price index may still be still in rise. In this way, the lagging effect of prices compared to the pressure of currency over issuance will still cause confusion in anti -inflation theory and policies. For example, some views believe that the excess currencies in my country will not bring pressure on prices at all, and prices should be decreased due to currency over issuance to suppress the insufficient price of effective consumption. This argument should understand that the time stagnation effect should be understood as the increase in currency and the rise in prices. The "expansion" of "currency" will not immediately bring "inflation", but the inconsistencies in time cannot deny that currency superbies are the most basic causes of the price level of the whole society and the continuous rise.

The second, the income gap expansion. Wealth concentrates to a few people, and the border consumption tendency of the rich is relatively low. Residents deposited a lot of income into banks as pensions, medical expenses, and education costs for their children.

Third, the fierce competition of consumer goods companies has blocked the price of commodity prices from raw materials to industrial consumer goods prices, from real estate and asset prices to the transfer of consumer goods prices of ordinary residents.

, but we must also make it clear that the expansion of asset prices can also lead to inflation. Mr. Yu Yongding, who has just stepped down as a member of the National Monetary Policy Commission, pointed out that only seeing the stability of the price index and not paying attention to the rise in financial assets and real estate prices, it is likely to lead to overlying monetary policy, so that the bubble economy cannot be stopped in time. He gave an example of Japan. In the late 1980s, the price of Japanese stocks and real estate prices rose sharply, but the price index was quite stable, so it did not increase interest rates and tightened silver roots. After the foam ruptured, Japan fell into the worst economic crisis after the war. Mr. Yu also reminded that under the current situation of a large number of over -issuing, but temporarily deposited for residents of savings deposits (we temporarily call this part of the currency "deposit currency"), the capital market is excessively developed (can also be possible It is the excessive development of the real estate market). It is likely to activate the deposit currency in the hibernation state. The temporary withdrawal of the currency of the circulation will return to the circulation field to chase goods, which will lead to the resurrection of inflation.

. Therefore, excess fluidity is a precursor of inflation, from excess fluid to inflation is only one step away.

[Solution of excess liquidity]

The problem of surplus of liquidity can be solved from three aspects.

· First, change the credit investment structure and vigorously develop SMEs and personal credit markets. By creating a good financial ecological environment, standardizing the financial ecological order, strengthening the construction of the credit system of the whole society, establishing a standardized and orderly social law and credit environment centered on protecting creditor's rights, and digesting China's sustainable national savings.

· Second, vigorously develop the capital market and adjust the financial market structure. Encourage compliance funds to enter the capital markets such as stocks, encourage and expand enterprises to raise funds through debt issuance, cultivate institutional investors, and make it the leading force in the capital market. Establish a unified national bond market and a diversified market risk allocation mechanism to effectively allocate financial resources.

· Finally, encourage and support product innovation in the banking industry, adjust the financial product structure, and guide liquidity. It is necessary to expand the operating space of commercial banks; develop currency market funds, develop new products such as asset securitization, bonds, and new products such as interest rates, exchange rate products and bond varieties in various combinations, and developing companies and private wealth management value -added services. Essence Develop financial custody products outside the balance sheet of commercial banks, and gradually change the way of survival of commercial banks.